GLP-1 households initially spend more on seafood. Why doesn’t the trend last?

Circana research finds that early seafood spending gains among GLP-1 households fade over time, raising questions about convenience, portions and long-term demand

As millions of Americans turn to GLP-1 medications for weight loss, what they put in their grocery carts changes.

The drugs, originally used to treat type 2 diabetes, mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and appetite. They suppress hunger and help people feel fuller for longer, often leading to a preference for smaller meals and protein-rich foods.

That should be good news for seafood. Fish and shellfish are packed with protein and essential nutrients, even in relatively smaller portions – exactly the qualities that appeal to many GLP-1 users.

The spending data, however, tells a more complicated story. New research from Circana, a global market research firm that tracks consumer purchasing habits, found that seafood’s early spending gains among U.S. households with GLP-1 users faded over time.

“We see some modest gains for several seafood categories as treatment begins, particularly tuna and refrigerated or shelf-stable seafood,” said Daniel Joyner, a consultant at Circana, during an October 20 webinar. “But then we see those gains start to fade, and several of those seafood segments fall below initial baseline by year two.”

Meanwhile, other protein-rich foods, including jerky and meat-and-cheese lunch kits, maintained positive relative spending trends.

For the seafood industry, that raises a question: If seafood checks so many nutritional boxes, why aren’t those early spending gains sticking?

Seafood’s GLP-1 opportunity comes with a catch

To understand the challenge, it helps to look at how overall grocery spending changes after GLP-1 treatment begins.

Circana found that U.S. households using the medications continue to spend more on food and beverages than households not using them, although the gap narrows after treatment begins. The bigger shift is in what they buy.

“This isn’t a story of consumers simply buying less food or spending less when it comes to food and beverage at retail,” said Joyner. “It’s really a story of reallocation of spend as households settle into treatment.”

Weight-control and nutritional beverages, including protein shakes and powders, posted strong relative spending gains that continued into the second year of treatment. Soup and refrigerated lunches also gained ground, while microwaveable dinners and shelf-stable prepared pasta recovered from early declines.

Even sweet treats made a comeback. After initial declines, candy and frozen desserts moved into positive territory during the second half of the first year and maintained those gains into year two.

Seafood followed a different trajectory. During the first three months of treatment, GLP-1 households showed modest improvements in relative spending on tuna, refrigerated seafood and shelf-stable seafood compared with their previous purchasing patterns and those of households not using the medications.

By the second year, however, all four seafood categories tracked by Circana – tuna, refrigerated, shelf-stable and frozen seafood – had fallen below their pretreatment relative spending baselines. Tuna showed the sharpest decline, with its relative spending index rising 3.2 points early in treatment before falling 5.2 points below its pretreatment level by year two.

These figures track relative spending patterns among U.S. households with GLP-1 users, not purchases by the individuals taking the medications. And they don’t necessarily mean households are spending fewer dollars on seafood overall.

“The initial interest among GLP-1 users is there,” Joyner said. “The challenge to retailers and brands is sustaining that initial interest over the entire journey.”

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Protein demand creates opportunities – but convenience may matter more

Seafood’s performance becomes particularly interesting when compared with other protein-rich foods.

Circana found that jerky, dried meat snacks, pork rinds, nutritional bars and meat-and-cheese lunch kits maintained positive relative spending trends among GLP-1 households into the second year of treatment.

The gains were especially pronounced for pork rinds and jerky, which finished year two 16.1 and 12.4 index points above their respective pretreatment baselines.

The research doesn’t establish why those products held up better than seafood. But their performance raises questions about whether convenience, portion size and ease of consumption play a role in sustaining demand.

“It may require some innovations around easier preparation, smaller pack sizes, portable formats or just giving consumers clear ideas how to incorporate seafood into simple meals and snacks,” said Joyner. “Tolerability, portion size, texture, preparation all matter.”

Seafood isn’t alone in facing this hurdle. Circana found a similar pattern in fresh produce, with salads and leafy greens showing weaker relative spending after treatment began.

“Nutritional value alone doesn’t necessarily determine whether a food works for GLP-1 users,” said Joyner. “Salads and leafy greens may seem like natural choices from a health standpoint, but we actually see [GLP-1 users] spend relatively less on these categories after they start treatment.”

“Large portions of raw foods may also be less appealing to consumers who are managing smaller appetites or even gastrointestinal side effects,” he added.

Those are possible explanations, not established causes. Still, the findings suggest that nutritional value alone may not be enough to sustain demand as eating habits evolve.

For seafood manufacturers and retailers, that could mean looking beyond protein and nutrient messaging to consider how products fit into smaller meals, busy routines and shifting appetites.

“The opportunity here isn’t simply about promoting healthier eating,” said Joyner. “Winning with GLP-1 users really requires brands and retailers to connect products to relevant benefits, appealing flavors and easy usage occasions.”

Smaller appetites, new restaurant opportunities

Changes in GLP-1 households’ eating habits aren’t limited to grocery stores.

Circana found that restaurant spending among these households declined during the first year of treatment before recovering. By the second year, spending had nearly returned to pretreatment levels.

“As consumers adapt, they return to restaurants,” said Joyner. “Although the dining occasions and the items they order may change.”

Lunch is leading that recovery. Spending on midday meals rose above earlier levels in the second year, even as breakfast and late-night dining continued to lag.

“For restaurants, lunch may offer the strongest opportunity to rebuild engagement as out-of-home spending initially subsides,” said Joyner.  “Keeping GLP-1 users engaged for breakfast and late-night occasions may require some more compelling options built around convenience and flexible portions of protein.”

For restaurants, that could mean rethinking the menu. Smaller servings of grilled fish, seafood bowls and lighter lunch dishes may appeal to diners looking for protein and nutrition without a large meal. Flexible portions could also give customers more control over how much they order.

“For the foodservice industry, this isn’t just a traffic story,” said Joyner. “It’s more consumers shifting away from some of those heavier foods and towards categories that better fit their changing appetites.”

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Putting seafood on the GLP-1 menu

Numbers tell only part of the story. Circana’s purchasing data can reveal spending patterns, but it doesn’t necessarily explain the motivations behind them. Smaller appetites, gastrointestinal side effects, treatment routines and individual nutritional needs may all influence food choices.

And not everyone taking a GLP-1 medication has the same experience.

“You need to plan for more than one GLP experience,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, a VP at Circana. “Interpret these purchasing differences alongside the reason for treatment and treatment stage, without assuming [oral or injection] delivery method actually causes the behavior.”

Lyons Wyatt noted that oral medications can come with different requirements around food and timing than injectable ones, while side effects and nutritional needs remain important considerations.

“Pill and injection households show different spending patterns, giving us a reason to explore their experiences more closely,” said Lyons Wyatt. “The purchase data does not measure side effect frequency or establish what caused these gaps.”

Consumer conversations on social media may offer clues into those experiences. On TikTok, people are sharing GLP-1 grocery hauls, swapping recipes and asking questions about side effects. While those discussions aren’t representative of all users, they can highlight practical concerns that purchasing data alone may not capture.

“Social content gives us a view into everyday questions surrounding the GLP-1 experience,” said Lyons Wyatt. “These examples can identify language people use and the information they seek. I would treat them as qualitative signals for further exploration.”

For seafood brands and retailers, those insights could help inform everything from product packaging to merchandising. Smaller and resealable packages, straightforward meal ideas, clearer nutrition information and more useful online product descriptions could make seafood easier to incorporate into everyday eating routines.

“The merchandising opportunity here is to make relevant choices easier to find,” said Lyons Wyatt.

Some retailers are already organizing their offerings around the needs of GLP-1 consumers. Walgreens has organized its resources around nutrition, potential vitamin and mineral gaps and common concerns, such as gastrointestinal symptoms and hair thinning.

The approach illustrates how retailers can organize information and products around specific consumer needs rather than relying solely on traditional product categories.

“The practical opportunity is meaningful nutrition in smaller portions, including protein, fiber, and hydration,” Lyons Wyatt said. “[And that’s] organized around shopper needs, such as digestive comfort, muscle support and nutritional adequacy – [beyond] just traditional weight loss and weight management categories.”

Restaurants could also make seafood options easier to navigate by offering flexible portions, visible protein and fiber information and clearer menu descriptions, without necessarily creating separate GLP-1 menus.

“The emphasis is making the choice easier and giving the guest control,” Lyons Wyatt said.

Those findings don’t establish that price is responsible for seafood’s declining relative spending among GLP-1 households. Circana’s research doesn’t make that connection either.

But it does raise a question worth investigating: When consumers are adjusting what and how much they eat, does seafood’s perceived cost make it harder to maintain a place in their grocery carts?

‘Use this as a planning signal’

Whatever is driving seafood’s spending patterns, the potential market among GLP-1 users is already substantial. According to Circana, approximately 30 percent of U.S. households reported having at least one current GLP-1 user.

“We saw nearly four in 10 U.S. households now reporting that someone in the household has ever used a GLP-1,” said Joyner. “That’s more than double from just 17 percent two years ago, and most of those households who have tried a GLP-1 are still using it today.”

These households also account for a significant share of food and beverage purchases. According to Circana, households with current GLP-1 users purchase roughly 32 percent of all food and beverage units sold in the United States. That share could increase considerably if current trends continue.

“If the trends hold, our projection puts GLP-1 households at 40 percent of food and beverage units and 41 percent of non-food units by 2030,” Lyons Wyatt said. “That is roughly four out of every 10 units in each of those areas.”

Those figures include purchases by everyone living in a household with a current GLP-1 user, not just the person taking the medication. The forecast depends on adoption trends continuing. But other research suggests the GLP-1 boom isn’t slowing down.

Looking at medical records of more than 92 million U.S. adults, a recent study found that more than 1.1 million Americans received GLP-1 prescriptions without a documented medical condition that would qualify them for treatment. Such “off-label” prescriptions became 15 times more common between 2021 and 2025. Moreover, the researchers suspect the actual number is likely higher, since the study may miss people getting the drugs through telehealth platforms or taking compounded versions.

At the same time, as more GLP-1 medications become available as pills and cheaper generic versions enter the market, the drugs could become accessible to millions more people, potentially triggering “a global surge” in GLP-1 use.

“For brands and retailers, I would use this as a planning signal,” Lyons Wyatt said. “Even if the pace of adoption differs from this scenario, the current footprint makes these households important to understand.”

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